TheIn Spain, more than 200 people have been killed after the deadliest floods in the country’s modern history. Australia is warming faster than the global average, which means more extreme heat events, longer fire seasons, increasingly intense downpours and rising sea levels. And globally, this year is very likely to be the hottest on record, beating the current holder, 2023. For some, this mounting scientific evidence may be alarming. But the man in charge of Australia’s response to the climate crisis says it’s not a word he would choose.
“If alarm means concern, of course. But alarm that means surprise? No,” says Chris Bowen, the country’s climate change and energy minister.
“We are experiencing climate change. What we’re trying to do now is avoid the worst,” says Bowen.
“Report after report, temperature records falling, natural disasters ever more unnatural – that’s why we keep going. That’s what drives me. Gets me out of bed every day. So maybe alarmed is the wrong word. Worried, maybe. But, you know, I’m not surprised.”
Bowen is speaking to Guardian Australia just ahead of the US presidential election, where polls show a 50-50 chance voters will choose a candidate who calls climate change a “hoax” and would lead an administration intent on dismantling the programs of clean energy and science and attract again. US from the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Six days after the US election, thousands of delegates from nearly 200 countries will descend on the Russian-linked petrostate of Azerbaijan for Cop29, an annual UN climate summit. Bowen will be at the center of that meeting, having been invited to help lead negotiations on what is considered his most important job – setting a new financial target to help the developing world.
The Australian government is also likely to learn whether to co-host the Cop31 summit with Pacific nations in 2026, an event that would bring tens of thousands of people to the country and increase scrutiny of its role as the third-largest fuel exporter. fossils in the world. .
But for now, all eyes are on the US.
What does a Trump victory mean?
Speaking in his ministerial office in Sydney’s CBD, Bowen admits the election result will be seismic and will shape two weeks of talks that begin in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, on November 11.
Asked for his view of what a Donald Trump victory would mean, he is cautious but clear: the Albanian government and the Biden administration have been “closely connected politically and personally” and “of course , having a United States administration with a climate-friendly administration is a good thing.”
He also gives three reasons why he believes a second Trump administration is unlikely to live up to the former president’s anti-climate rhetoric on the climate crisis.
“First, they are United UNITED. So the functions of the state are very important. And maybe unlike 2016, where the result came as a surprise, if it’s a Trump administration, people are making more preparations for it,” he says.
“Secondly, it’s hard to legislate in the United States, but it’s also hard to outlaw. So the Inflation Reduction Act [which includes an extraordinary US$370bn in clean energy support] it is the law of the land and will remain the law of the land unless it is repealed, which will be very difficult to do. And third, the private sector can help. In the United States, regardless of federal mandates, they know [climate action] it’s good business.
“Will the dynamics of Cop be different depending on whose president? Of course they will. But does the rest of the world leave if the president of the United States is Donald Trump? No.”
Within climate activist circles, there is an expectation that if Kamala Harris wins, she can quickly set a 2035 emissions reduction target and other countries can follow suit. If Trump wins, many countries, including Australia, are likely to delay and recalibrate before setting their 2035 commitments, which are due next year.
Bowen says Labor will set a target based on “what we think we can achieve and what our contribution should be under the science” – and what others are doing. Initial advice from the Climate Change Authority found that a target of a reduction of up to 75% below 2005 levels would be “ambitious but could be achievable”.
According to a recent analysis by the UN Environment Programme, current national commitments would lead to only a 2.6% reduction in emissions below 2019 levels by 2030. This is far less than what countries have agreed to. is needed: a 43% reduction over that time frame and a 60% cut by 2035.
Bowen says he understands “to some degree” why this stark discrepancy makes people cynical, but argues that the summits are important, not least because they send a signal to governments and investors who are raising trillions of dollars. He says there has been real progress in the past year, including a non-binding agreement that the world should move away from fossil fuels and a tripling of renewable energy by 2030.
“What is the alternative? Not to worry, not to talk to other countries, not to have goals?” he says. “Is it perfect? No, but this is what we have. I would be surprised if people who are concerned about climate activism argue that we should not be active participants in the global conversation.”
Bowen will arrive in Baku, a historic oil city on the shores of the Caspian Sea, with three hats. The most important role is co-leading with the Egyptian environment minister, Yasmine Fouad, the negotiations to create a new financial goal – known in UN parlance as a “new collective quantitative goal”, or NCQG – to help developing countries fight and limit climate catastrophe. .
It aims to replace a $100 billion a year target that was set more than a decade ago and is widely agreed to be woefully inadequate. Bowen says their ability to reach a consensus on the issue – covering how much is needed, who pays and what kind of public, private and multilateral banking finance should be accounted for – will largely determine whether the summit is seen as a success or failure.
“I probably have to manage expectations, but … that’s the finance police,” Bowen says. “So getting an NCQG right is the key element.”
He is also chairman of the negotiating bloc known as the umbrella group, which includes the US, UK, Canada and Japan, and will represent Australia as it seeks to finalize whether to host Cop31. Australia is favored to win, but Turkey is also in the running and the decision-making process is murky.
The bid has been largely welcomed by clean energy and climate advocates and business groups, but some critics say Australia should not be awarded the rights to host the summit while it is still allowing major new coal developments and gas.
This is the conflict in the Australian government’s climate position. Domestically, it has a program to secure enough renewable energy to produce 82% of the country’s electricity by 2030 and has legislated policies to encourage a shift to cleaner cars that it promises to start taking off with pollution in large industrial countries. He is also trying to argue against a coalition proposal for nuclear power that many experts say would actually increase the power of fossil fuels over the next two decades.
But there is also no plan to limit coal and gas developments for export. In September, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved the expansion of three thermal coal mines that could lead to more than 1.5 billion tons of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere.
Asked whether the government’s mixed messages – action at home but unlimited shipments of fossil fuels to burn overseas – undermine its credibility and risk making people disengage from the climate, Bowen says the Greens’ argument for the lack of coal and new gas is “good. politically effective slogan”, but that “life is not that simple”.
“The idea that we can just say we’re going to stop approving new coal, which means we stop exporting coal at the right time, that’s not how you get this job done,” he says. “People say, ‘Oh, that’s a drug dealer’s defense.’ Well, well… But the reality is that other countries will continue to export coal and we have to think about our place in the world.
“I totally agree with that: the biggest impact [on climate] we can have is in our exports. Hence the need to become a renewable energy superpower.”
It points to an ambitious $30 billion SunCable plan to export solar power from the Northern Territory to Singapore via undersea cables. Bowen was in the state of the city last month for the announcement that the project had received conditional approval.
“You have to look holistically,” he says. “Yes, our exports are important, but replacing our current fossil fuel exports with renewable exports is key to this. Not just focusing on the negatives – that we should stop fossil fuel exports.
“We need to replace fossil exports with renewable energy. And this is a big task, which will take some time.”